
Department of Statistics
California State University, East Bay
Fall 2007


MGMT 6110: Business and Economic Forecasting
Week 10:
 The solution to Homework 5, 7 and Homework 8 have been posted on Blackboard.
 This week we will go over how to use ForecastX to identify an ARIMA model
and forecast using the model.
 We will also discuss some of the ideas in Ch. 8 and Ch. 9.
betterforecasting.doc
 For the final you should review all of the material presented in the
class, but the questions on the final will focus on the second half of the
class.
Week 9:
 This week we will discuss the topic of ARIMA modeling.
arimna.doc arima1.doc
 This week we will introduce the use of SPSS.
 Homework 8 has been posted.
 Next week we will review for the final. Please do a review of the
material since the midterm and bring questions to class next week.
 There will be a short in class quiz today for preparation for the final.
Week 8:
 This week we will discuss the Time Series Decomposition.
 This week we will introduce the use of Minitab.
 Homework 7 has been posted.
 Homework 5 and 6 are due this week. If you have not submitted it please do
this week.
 See the Links link above for a few suggested
website with time series data. If anyone has an suggested links to find
data please forward the links to me. Thanks.
Week 7:
 This week we will cover the topic of Multiple Linear Regression. In
the use of multiple linear regression a correlation matrix should be computed
to check for multicollinearity. The DW test should be checked to see if
there is serial correlation in the residuals. And the adjR square
should be used as the criteria for model selection, or AIC, or BIC.
 The class project has been assigned.
 An interesting article was written a few years ago about the problems with
the "art" of using Multiple Linear Regression.
 Many of the examples in the book relate to home values. Some current
companies that collect and analyze data are
HouseValues.com,
Zillow.com, and
Zaio.com What are the main
differences between these companies in their approaches to the appraisal of
homes? What other companies are there that do this type of valuation?
 Homework 6 has been posted. Since we have only talked about Multiple
Linear Regression, I have postponed the hw for the next chapter until next
week. You should complete the Multiple Linear Regression homework and we
will discuss it next week.
Week 6:
 This week the midterm will be given, the
exam will last about 2 hours.
 The class Project will be assigned next week.
 Homework 5 has been posted and will be discussed in class next week.
Week 5:
 This week we reviewed the ideas of hypotheses testing and the ideas of
linear regression.
 Today we will be discussing correlation and multiple linear
regression.
 Quiz 1 will be given and gone over as preparation for the midterm next week.
 I have posted the solutions for hw3 and hw4.
Week 4:
 This week we will cover the topic of Simple Linear Regression. The
most important thing to do is to plot the data before you try to fit a line to
data.
 During the Week 5 class we will review for the Midterm which will be given
Week 6. Next week we will review the material that has been covered in
class, go over homework questions, and we will discuss the topics to be
covered on the in class midterm exam.
 During the Week 5 class we will discuss the class project.
 Please turn in Homework 3 this week in Blackboard in the Digital Dropbox.
 Homework 4 has been posted.
 The solution to Homework 1 and 2 are available on Blackboard under the
Course Materials. And the solution to Homework 3 will be posted this
weekend.
Week 3:
 This week we will cover various smoothing methods including the Moving
Average, Simple Exponential Smoothing, Holt's Exponential Smoothing, Winter's
Exponential Smoothing, ADRES Exponential Smoothing, and Growth Curve Fitting.
 Please turn in Homework 2 this week in Blackboard in the Digital Dropbox.
 Homework 3 has been posted.
 Check out this forecasting competition from Netflix.
Netflix Prize Note the
accuracy calculation used on the leaderboard.
 How to name your homework files to turn in. When preparing your
homework file for the class make sure that you save you file with an
acceptable file name. The convention is, for example for hw1,
lastname_firstname_hw1.doc
 If you did not receive credit in Blackboard in the Gradebook please
resubmit your hw using the acceptable file name.
Week 2:
 This week we will finish going over the Naive Forecasting methods from
Chapter 1. We will cover the ideas of the Forecasting Process, the
concepts of Trend, Seasonality, and Cyclical data patterns from Chapter 2.
We will also introduce the idea of Autocorrelation. Autocorrelation is
the concept of correlation within a time series.
 Please turn in Blackboard in the Digital Dropbox by Friday.
 Homework 2 has been posted.
Week 1:
 This week we will introduce the ideas of Forecasting.
 Homework 1 has been posted.
 Please turn in Homework 1 using Blackboard in the digital dropbox.
 How to name your homework files to turn in. When preparing your
homework file for the class make sure that you save you file with an
acceptable file name. The convention is, for example for hw1,
lastname_firstname_hw1.doc
Week 0:
